There's an article in Craft Beer and Brewing on this subject, basically making the case that if you're a mid-sized craft brewer, you're in for a bit of a rough ride. Markets are becoming saturated in the US (if you assume the US is this big, homogeneous area) and as you mention, the highest return per pint is the return on the pints you pour yourself. So I did what I do for a living, went out and got data....
Google makes a lot of its search data available to others so I looked for data from 2004 on for the search terms "Brewery" and "Opens". Turns out there is a slow, steady increase throughout the period. There appears to be a small dip in the last reporting period but it's within the realm of statistical noise. The same search for "brewery" and "closes" didn't yield enough data to even use. So craft beer is still growing. Next is where. Small neighborhood breweries are doing well, apparently. The big "craft" brewers like New Belgium, Lagunitas, St. Arnold and so forth are doing well. The problem is in the middle and a large part of the problem is bad business decisions.
You overextend, over-leverage, attempt to grow too fast, base your predictions on the top of an upswing, you will have business problems. One area where the article mentioned in the first paragraph is very weak is data. They tell several anecdotes about breweries having to close but I don't know if the rate of closure has changed and I can't tell it from the data. The anecdotes match what I get to be the mood of the industry, particularly in the middle of the size distribution but without data, it's impossible to tell. Maybe the Brewer's Association has some stats, I don't know. Smuttynose was one of the stories mentioned in the article and I can't remember exactly the story around why they closed - I believe it was attempting to grow too fast. Lots of factors but I believe the general point of the article to be true: It's a tough time to be a mid-sized brewery in the US.
