The UK is on a very similar path. I've been sat talking to our Marston's rep this morning and they are seeing a steady decline. Carlsberg seem to be on life support and there's serious talk about them shutting their sales operations down and just having supply agreements with wholesalers.
Meanwhile craft beer brewers and bars are popping up everywhere and snatching their own share of the market; most often from the volume brewers.
I feel that we've reached a tipping point in the UK with more beer being consumed in the home than outside. The big brewers know this, of course they do, but it's a tricky thing for them to react to. We are seeing them buying up craft brewers (Hop Stuff to Coors, Magic Rock to Heineken and plenty of others) but we aren't clear yet whether it's to grow them or close them; time will tell on that score.
For me, as a beer fan, it's the best time that there's ever been to be interested in beer and there's no reason why that should change; it should just get better.There will be casualties here, the mid-sized brewers are probably more vulnerable than the really big boys, but for consumers it's a brilliant time.